- Team GB expected to finish with more than 55 medals in total at the Paris Summer Olympic Games and come in third place, behind the US and China.
- Team GB is projected to win 20 gold medals, just shy of the 22 golds at the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo.
- France is expected to benefit from the ‘host effect’, and more than double their Tokyo gold medal tally.
With the Paris Summer Olympic Games officially starting on Friday, PwC’s ongoing Olympic medal predictions table forecasts that Team GB will continue its impressive run of medal hauls in recent Games and rank third in the overall medal tally.
PwC’s econometric modelling analyses a range of drivers, including demographic and economic size, income levels, previous Olympic performances and other parameters, including whether the country is the host nation. Historically, these metrics have shown statistically significant relationships with a country’s performance at the Olympic Games.
Table: PwC UK predictions for the top ten medal winners at the 2024 Summer Olympic Games
Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
US | 42 | 43 | 31 | 116 |
China | 42 | 34 | 24 | 100 |
Great Britain | 20 | 20 | 16 | 56 |
France | 21 | 20 | 13 | 54 |
Japan | 23 | 13 | 16 | 52 |
Australia | 15 | 8 | 14 | 37 |
Germany | 10 | 12 | 14 | 36 |
Italy | 9 | 11 | 13 | 33 |
Netherlands | 8 | 9 | 8 | 25 |
Brazil | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Sources for regression: IMF, IOC
China to have a record-breaking Summer Olympic Games, with hosts France expected to have a stand out performance
PwC UK predicts the US will again top the medal table in Paris for the eighth event in a row. China is expected to follow, with Great Britain narrowly expected to beat the host nation by coming third in the overall medals rank. If China secures the 100 medals predicted, then this would equal their record secured at their home Summer Olympic Games in 2008.
The big stand out is France, which PwC predict will take 54 medals. With 21 gold medals, this would be their best result ever - more than double that achieved in 2020, in part due to having the home nation advantage.
Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC UK says:
"Team GB is targeting a minimum of 50 medals at this year’s Summer Olympic Games in Paris, and we believe they could surpass this target. British athletes have competed in every modern Summer Olympic Games, winning at least one gold medal at each of the events, and we predict they’ll more than continue this success, picking up an impressive 20 golds.
“Modelling shows that economic clout and other factors such as previous performance at the Olympic Games and whether a nation hosts the event can be statistically significant factors in determining sports success. This highlights the importance of economic fundamentals even in non-economic areas of life, such as sporting and Olympic success.”
Clive Reeves, Global Sports Leader at PwC UK says:
“Olympic success is more than just a sporting achievement, it is a powerful driver of national pride and can enhance the country's global reputation. Winning an Olympic medal can lead to significant commercial opportunities for both sports teams and individuals.
“Olympic athletes make great role models and can play an important role in promoting health and fitness amongst the next generation. Our upcoming PwC Global Sports Survey found 24% of sports leaders believe this is an important role for the government in sports. Although grassroots and community programmes may not garner as much attention as professional sports, they have a significant and lasting impact on public health and overall community well-being.”
-Ends-
Notes to Editors
PwC’s 8th Annual Global Sports report will be released Wednesday 31st July
PwC UK did not do full predictions for the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympic Games, but predicted host nation Japan would surpass its record 41 medal haul at the Rio Games four years earlier, which it did with a total of 58 medals.
